Why Trump?

So Donald Trump is President and the UK elected to exit the EU - here's my take on the explanation.

Free trade and global markets has been great for growing economies in general but not everyone has been a winner. Many studies have shown that wealth at the top has increased while the base of the pyramid is wider and deeper with many feeling a sense of hopelessness.

Traditional working class jobs have been exported to cheaper labour countries with large areas of the US where coal mining, steel production, car manufacturing, etc have all closed down with devastating effects on the local economy. Things are looking rosy in New York or Silicon Valley but not so much in Detroit.

For non-graduates many of the remaining jobs are low wage, low skill and these have largely been filled by immigrants, whether they be Eastern European in the UK or Latin American in the US. The locals might not really want these jobs but they still resent the new comers getting on better than they are.

Trump and the Brexiteers openly promised to reduce immigration. It's an easy sell but this doesn't solve the problem because the locals don't really want to do the work in the low pay sector. They also hint at some protectionism as a means to bring back some of the skilled blue collar work. This could have a positive effect locally in the medium term but global economies could crash as the draw bridges rise.

Fundamentally the only way to deal with immigration is to improve standards in the poorer countries. The bigger the margin between the rich and poor countries the more tempting it is to migrate.

The US in particular enjoys the highest standards of living on the planet by some margin. The problems are not those of competition with other countries they are caused by domestic inequalities. There's more than enough wealth in the US to allow everyone a fair share but there is an inbuilt distrust of any state level attempts at wealth redistribution.