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Showing posts with label population. Show all posts
Showing posts with label population. Show all posts

Dec 28, 2023

AI and Population

The combination of two topic problems could result in an opportunity.

1. Now that populations in most developed countries are in decline, many commentators are concerned about the economic challenges of a declining population. This is exacerbated by the fact that the only population growth is from immigration.

2.  The rapid development and engagement with Artificial Intelligence applications such as ChatGPT in 2023 raises concerns about changes to the world of work, with the prospect of wide spread unemployment.


On the bright side, if we put the two issues together we could envisage a scenario where populations do slowly decline, with all the related positive effects on the natural world, and the lost productivity is replaced by AI and other forms of automation.

Jan 8, 2013

GM Foods

1. Is GM Safe?

The question "is GM food safe" is a meaningless question. Each genentic modification will have it's own impact on the species in question and also on the whole environment around it - the effects is far too complex for us to be able to predict so we will only know the full effects over time. Some modifications might well turn out to be fine, especially those that could have been achieved using selective breeding over a longer time frame. The most extreme modifications are clearly not safe and might have a catastrophic impact on the environment.

2. Who Controls GM?

Large companies invest a lot of money into genetic modifications and as a business it's important for them to make a profit. To prevent competitors using their research they apply for a patent on their modification. Once a farmer goes down the GM route they may find they are locked into buying certain fertilizers or pest control chemicals from the same company in order to get the best from their new crop. Or the supplier of GM will tie them into a contract. Some farmers have been treatened with legal action when the genetic pattern is identified on their land. There are also concerns about the fertility of some GM pigs, no-one is sure whether this is to make sure that the farmer always has to buy from the GM company.

3. Genetic Modification vs Selective Breeding

Some GM supports compare GM to an accelerated form of selected breeding. For a long time man has picked the best individuals, whether it be pigs, cows, wheat or corn and bred them together. Over a relatively long period certain characteristics can be developed such as beef cows with less fat or corn plants with shorter stalks. However, each generation of selected breeding is exposed to the effects of nature and so there is time to observe any undesirable side effects. With genetic modifications we can leap forward by adding genetic patterns from alien species. We will always run the risk of accidentally releasing a modification that has disasterous consequences - we are not always as smart as we think we are!

4. Better Safe than Sorry

Once the genie is out of the bottle it's not going to be easy to every put it back. Time and again mankind has created problems by introducing non-native species, whether it be rats in the Galapagos, rabbits in Australia or Japanese knotweed in the UK.

5. Agriculture in the Ecosystem

In the densely populated UK the vast majority of our land is used for agriculture. This means that our farms and plantation forests are very important to our ecosystem. If GM were successful in elimating weeds (a weed is just a plant growing in the wrong place) and pests (just another species trying to survive) then all the creatures up the food chain will decline. Everyone likes to see butterflys but the caterpillers are not so popular and caterpillers often need weeds such as nettles - unfortunately you can't have one without the other. Of course, it is incredibly important that we produce enough food for the UK to be reasonably independant on basic foods but we must take our fair share and allow nature her fair share too.

6. GM Can't Eradicate Hunger; Education Can

GM supporters point to the need to increase food production to feed the Third World. Two problems with GM as a solution to this; firstly there is already enough food grown worldwide it just a question of getting it in the right place without destroying local markets, secondly GM technology is expensive and very high tech. We can not solve the food problems of the Third World by getting them addicted to technology that has to be purchased from us. Education is the key; through education farmers can find their own solutions using more traditional approaches, education also has a very significant effect on population so we can avoid the vicious cycle of more food leading directly to an increased population, leading to demand for more food - especially if this food can only be grown using western technology. This will inevitably lead to disaster.


Dec 13, 2009

Population & Housing

Having seen David Attenborough present the Horizon special the other night it seem obvious that the UK government needs to set a target population for the country to work towards. Somewhere between 50 - 60 million seems about right. Achieving the target might take a generation but policy should be bent towards the goal starting with a look at tax and benefits that relate to children other than the first.

Further efforts need to be made toward addressing our high levels of teenage pregnancy, indeed education towards making it the norm for couples to wait until at least the age of 25 would almost certainly lead to better parenting.

The overall population target should be adopted at regional level by adopting the current policy towards new housing development. Instead of expanding the housing stock a mechanism should be developed to promote the building of new energy efficient houses while simultaneously redeveloping older houses where it is not economical to bring them up to modern building standards. Maybe there is an opportunity to resolve the inequity of Stamp Duty at the same time?

Q: how to make it economically desirable to demolish old energy-inefficient houses?

Mar 5, 2009

Population

Today I have been reading about population issues. I have been aware and confused by the lack of government policy for some time but I hadn't realised quite how serious matters are for the UK in particular. My recollection from the late '90s was that UK population was about to go into decline but the economic boom years since then have re-ignited the fire of our population with some estimates showing the UK could have 77 million people by 2050 and 100 million by the end of the century.

What is even more scary is that research into finding a sustainable level of population for the UK shows that we might already have 30 million "too many" people in the country. The vast majority of our wealth and food is generated overseas and south-east England is one of the most densely populated areas in the world.

On a global scale many countries have succeeded in bringing their birth rates under control and are entering a period of slow decline in population as a result. Yet none of the main political parties in the UK have a policy on population.

The main reasons seem to be civil liberties and religion. However a policy that sets out to work towards a given target, say 50 million by 2050, doesn't need to infringe upon the rights of any individual as other countries have shown. Some couples will still have large families and immigration will still take place but overall the average will be reduced through "Stop at Two" programmes and availability of contraception.

The big question on my mind today is whether it is all too late. With a soaring population all our efforts to live more sustainably are for nought. The planet will survive and mankind will no doubt survive in much smaller numbers but what of our society? What will get lost along the way? How much pain are we storing up for the next generation?

I want to find out whether it's possible to drive this agenda from the bottom up; if all councils in the UK set their own population reduction targets then there is no need for central government controls.