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Mar 25, 2009

Economy and Population

I have been reading "The Great Boom Ahead" written by Harry S. Dent, Jnr in 1993. His hypothesis is that economic cycles are tied to periodic fluctuations in population, that the baby boom following World War II meant resulted in a peak of consumption between the mid-90's and 2007. He actually predicts that there would be an economic crash around 2008 and that our economy would remain in recession until 2022 when the next birth boom reaches the peak of their spending power.

It makes you wonder whether our economy is just a great big ponzi scheme based on growing population and increased consumption! If you study the impending pensions crisis you definitely get that feeling.

Now combine this with a need to decrease our population long term in order to foster a sustainable society.

How would companies grow without a growing market for their goods? Who would invest in companies without growth potential? How can companies develop improved products without the market to sustain a return on investment?

Investment based on profits (dividends) not growth (share price)?
Profits based on efficiency, quality, customisation not ecomony of scale, mass production?

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